Impact of antiretroviral therapy on prevalence of HIV in Kenya

Post Date: 22 February 2018   |   Category: General   |   Hits: 233

Ministry of Health estimates that over 1.5 million Kenyans are living with HIV by 2015 with the prevalence rate of 5.6% having declined from 5.7% a year earlier. Statistics on the prevalence rates show that HIV in Kenya is on the decline. The effort by the government effort to provide antiretroviral therapy is also being enhanced, for instance since 2000, the coverage has increased rapidly to over 60% by 2016.

In this week’s number of the week we examine the effect of introduction of ART drugs to HIV prevalence in Kenya. Is there any impact on HIV prevalence with the introduction of antiretroviral therapy?

The chart below is a scatter plot of prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) against antiretroviral therapy coverage (% of people living with HIV). The chart illustrates changes in HIV prevalence against changes in the ART.

Chart 1: HIV Prevalence against ART coverage

Source: World Bank –World Development Indicators

The chart reveals indirect relationship between HIV prevalence and ART. It shows that HIV prevalence has been declining exponentially with increase in ART coverage to HIV patients. In 2000, HIV prevalence was
10.2%, in 2010 the rate had reduced to 6.1%, while the latest statistic show that the rate is 5.4% in 2016.

Number of the week: 4.8 percentage points

  • Between 2000 and 2016, the highest HIV prevalence has declined by 4.8 percentage points, representing a decay rate of approximately 0.3 percentage points annually
  • Over the same period, antiretroviral therapy coverage (% of people living with HIV) has increased from 2% in 2004 to 29% in 2010 and in six years doubling to 64% by 2016.This represents a decline rate of approximately 5.2 percentage points annually.
  • This implies that on average for every 5.2 percentage point increase in ART coverage, HIV prevalence is declining progressively by 0.3 percentage points annually