Futures Programme

 

Overall Goal

The Futures programme seeks to facilitate increased utilisation of futures methodologies in development planning, research, policy formulation and analysis

 

Objectives

1. To initiate the effective use of futures methodologies for long term planning in Kenya
2. To disseminate and facilitate debate on alternative policy proposals
3. To stimulate and guide change towards the desired goal for different sectors and provide the development of consistent frameworks
4. To provide a banner of evaluating development planning in the country

Components

1.       Scenarios thinking

2.       Vision building

3.       Strategic planning

I. Scenarios

A. Kenya at the Crossroads Scenarios

In 2000, IEA in collaboration with the Society for International Development (SID) facilitated the development of scenarios for Kenya that sought to explore the possible futures that the country could face in 15 years or so. The project was dubbed Kenya at the Crossroads, Scenarios for our Future. The work established four possible outcomes in the stories Elnino, Maendeleo, Katiba and the Flying Geese. All the four scenarios indicated that failure to undertake basic reforms of both our politics and institutions, and our economy will not yield the desired results and is extremely dangerous. A research compendium and a scenarios booklet containing the four scenarios were published. They can also be located on the web on: http://www.kenyascenarios.org/.

The events of the post Election 2007 have served to bring to reality the possibilities that the scenarios had anticipated and in particular that it is possible for Kenya to disintegrate and loose all the economic and political gains. It is clear that the resolution of the crises and resumption to normalcy will have to be as a result of dealing with underlying structural issues. The Futures Programme is in the process of further developing the scenarios to address the post election uncertainties taking into consideration the possible outcomes from the mediation talks.

B. Social Security in Kenya

The Social Security project focuses on the provision of social security in Kenya with a view of existing interest and action in the development of a comprehensive social security policy in Kenya. The project began in January 2007 and seeks to expand the definition and focus on social security to the assurance of quality life from birth to death. Currently, social security provision focuses only on the vulnerable groups such as elderly and the extremely poor. It is also more about pensions and life after retirement.  Phase I of the work is meant to produce a fact book on social security. This will be a concise documentation of past and current interventions based on key dimensions of Demographics, Health, Insurance, Employment, Housing, Incomes and ability to deal with shocks/disasters. Phase II will develop the scenarios that the country is likely to face in her effort to provide social security to all Kenyans. The outcome will be a proposed strategy for comprehensive social security for all Kenyans from birth to death.

Two Scenarios meetings have taken place. Participants were drawn from the relevant offices dealing with the various dimensions in the study. The first Social Security Scenarios Workshop was held on 25th - 28th July 2007 at Merica Hotel, Nakuru. Another Social Security Scenarios Workshop was held on 3rd - 6th October 2007 at the Lukenya Kusyombunguo Guest House, Athi River. Reports of the two workshops are available at the IEA.

II. Visioning  

Visioning is a process of developing a clear statement of the aspired future. In a country it includes putting in place the necessary strategies of achieving that future.

Building a vision is one way in which public participation can be enhanced to build consensus regarding the country’s future. IEA seeks to give theoretical and practical perspectives on the importance of building a shared vision that can unify people and enhance development by embedding it into a comprehensive planning process.

A. Vision 2027

The National Vision project brought together a group of Kenya’s young people in 2003 who developed a proposed national vision for Kenya dabbed ‘The Promise of our Generation; A Proposal for a National Vision for Kenya’.  The vision anticipated that by 2027, those who were around 27 years old then would work hard to deliver the said promises to the generations that come after us. Vision 2027 envisions a united nation with a confident and proud educated and healthy people infused with strong ethical values, living in a democratic, tolerant, caring and economically just society with a progressive, prosperous competitive, dynamic, robust and resilient economy, managing our resources for the benefit of the future generations of Kenya and having taken our place in the community of nations with pride, responsibility and contributing to uplifting the status of Africa our continent in the global community of nations.

The dissemination of this vision to various state and non state actors was a precursor to the national debate that led to the initiative of Vision 2030. The work has also been adopted by Kenya’s young people under the auspices of youth agenda as a benchmark to reform Kenya through young people’s participation in leadership, institutional reform, livelihoods and broadening of economic opportunities as well as in creating a movement.

B. Vision 2030

The Futures programme was in the core team of the vision 2030 process in charge of developing the social pillar. Vision 2030 is a development blue print that will see the country grow into a globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life. It’s anchored on 3 key pillars: An economic, a social and a political pillar. The economic pillar seeks to achieve and maintain a sustained economic growth of over 10% per annum over the next 25 years. The social pillar seeks to create a just and cohesive society enjoying equitable social development, in a clean and secure environment. The political pillar aims at realising an issue-based, people-centered, result oriented, and accountable democratic political system.

III. Strategic Planning

The Futures programme has been involved in strategic planning for constituencies. Strategic plans help a community take stock of where they are coming from and where they are to determine strategic needs that can be carefully prioritised to enhance community development. Strategic planning is a business planning tool that determines where an organisation is going over the next year or more, and how it will strategically position itself to get there. It is an orderly process that can be adopted by rural communities to identify and address pressing issues. 

 

Constituencies Strategic Planning Facilitators Guide

This is a step-by-step manual on participatory development planning at the Community (constituency) level. It draws on lessons from the work that the programme has been doing in 9 constituencies over the period 2006-2007. The programme has no capacity to facilitate strategic planning in all the 210 constituencies and thus then need to empower other development agents in the various constituencies to carry on. The programme will then play an oversight role upon consultation by the different constituencies.The manual will be launched in the second quarter of 2008 and thereafter by used in training development managers.

B. Constituencies Strategic Planning

 

In the period June 2006/June 2007, IEA helped constituencies develop six strategic plans. These constituencies are Kabete, Kilome, Butula, Khwisero, Rongai and Ugenya constituencies. Kabete’s strategic plan was launched on 7^th of April 2007. The rest are in the peer review stage for quality and feasibility assessment.

 

In the period July-December 2007 Futures programme anticipated to facilitate four other strategic plans in order to cover all the provinces in Kenya. These included; Gachoka, Ganze, Dujis and Starehe Constituencies which were completed with the exception of Starehe due to the election campaigns and subsequent chaos.

 

The lessons drawn from the mentioned strategic planning exercises will be disseminated to the government and other development partners for consideration in policy formulation around development planning and financing. IEA is keen to contribute to the amendment of the CDF act to include compulsory planning and justification of projects before disbursement of funds. This will be done in order to promote the enhancement of development planning and financing strategies that are cost effective, deliver better outputs and have community impact.